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Strategic Intelligence & Political Economy
Iran, the Gulf, sanctions, energy and geopolitical risk — from private executive briefings to retained advisory. The question is what an event changes for the decision in front of you.
The proposition
The product is judgement.
Middle East Analytica works where political change becomes a commercial decision: Iran, the Gulf, sanctions, energy, geopolitical risk and the movement of businesses between the UK and the Middle East. We are less interested in what happened than in what it changes — for an exposure, a negotiation, a counterpart, a board decision or the next move.
Not another stream of news. A considered view that can survive the room in which the decision is actually made.
Where the work is.
Three capabilities, held to one standard: specific questions, practical judgement and no unnecessary theatre.
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Executive Risk & Communications
For moments when analysis is no longer enough: difficult interviews, reputational shocks, misinformation events, crisis preparation and decisions that must withstand board-level or public scrutiny.
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Cross-Border Market Entry & Commercial Representation
British businesses entering the Middle East and regional businesses entering Britain — from market and counterpart selection to commercial representation, partnerships and routes to market.
Typical engagements
Executive briefingsBoard memosMarket-entry assessmentsCounterparty reviewsCrisis preparationRetained advisory
Founder-led
Middle East Analytica is led by Alireza Salavati, a London-based political-economy analyst with senior management and international media experience.
A. Salavati
Public record
Selected media & commentary.
Independent commentary by Alireza Salavati has appeared across international media. This is a deliberately small selection — chosen for relevance to political economy, sanctions, markets and cross-border risk.
Sanctions, import costs and the working-capital squeeze
An eight-minute BBC Persian interview on how sanctions raise import costs, lengthen cash-conversion cycles and intensify working-capital pressure on producers.
Watch 8-minute interview↗
Can US sanctions ground Iran's aviation industry?
Analysis of the economic cost of weaker air connectivity, from business and medical travel to cargo and cross-border commerce.
Read analysis↗
Iran shares rise as bourse creates stability fund
Coverage of Tehran's capital market and the political-commercial environment around it.
Read coverage↗
Iran abruptly raises fuel prices, and protests erupt
Commentary on fuel pricing, inflation and the political consequences of policy execution.
Read coverage↗
Can Iran replace sea trade with land routes?
Trade corridors, logistics capacity and the limits of overland resilience.
Read analysis↗
Can new US sanctions cripple Iran's shadow economy?
Sanctions, inflation expectations and the expansion of informal economic channels.
Read analysis↗
Independent PersianIran–China 25-year agreement: from aspiration to reality
A representative column on bargaining power, investment risk and geopolitical constraint.
Read column↗
Malaysia: the reasons for democratic stability
Long-form discussion on institutions, political economy and democratic transition.
Watch discussion↗
What does neoliberalism mean?
A full-length Pargar debate on markets, the state and the politics surrounding neoliberalism.
Listen to discussion↗
Why are so many Iranian managers accused of corruption?
One of the more widely viewed BBC discussions featuring Salavati, on governance, incentives and institutional accountability.
Watch discussion↗
Media references indicate published commentary or appearances only; they do not imply endorsement by the organisations shown.
Selective by designThe work begins with a real question, not a generic brief.
A name behind the judgementAdvice should be owned, reasoned and capable of being challenged.
London · the regionCommercial perspective in London, with the Middle East treated as context — not decoration.
An illustrative decision note
A Faster Trade Route Is Not Necessarily a Better Commercial Decision
A short example of the product — not client work and not legal advice.
The question
A new overland corridor promises shorter transit times and an alternative to disrupted maritime routes. Should a company shift its supply chain and commit additional capital?
What matters
First, reliability matters more than advertised speed. A shorter journey can become commercially unattractive when border delays, customs uncertainty and inconsistent delivery schedules are included.
Second, working capital changes the calculation. Freight cost is only one component of commercial exposure. Inventory requirements, payment delays and the time between committing capital and receiving revenue can outweigh an apparent transport saving.
Third, changing the route does not remove regulatory exposure. Counterparty ownership, ultimate destination, end use and applicable sanctions restrictions require independent examination.
What is noise
Political announcements about new corridors, headline comparisons of distance and isolated examples of successful shipments are not sufficient evidence of commercial viability.
Decision implication
Treat the corridor as an operational option, not an investment thesis.
Before committing substantial capital, conduct a controlled pilot, establish the full landed cost, stress-test delivery and payment delays, and complete appropriate sanctions due diligence.
The relevant question is not whether a route is shorter. It is whether the route delivers a more reliable, compliant and capital-efficient commercial outcome.
Illustrative only. Sector-specific legal, sanctions and regulatory advice should be taken where required.
An invitation
Bring the question.
The best engagements begin with a real decision, exposure or opportunity — not a presentation. Sometimes that becomes a mandate. Sometimes a retained relationship. Sometimes it is simply a useful conversation with someone whose judgement we value.
If there is a decision worth testing, one live question is enough.
Send the question. Initial response within two working days.